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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."