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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.